US midterm elections · Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026

Midterms 2026 · Live results

Last updated: 4:10 p.m. ET

Election Day. No votes counted yet. The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET (parts of Indiana and Kentucky).

Senate control

34Democrats
0Independent
35Undecided
31Republicans

Majority: Democrats need 51. Republicans need 50, because Vice President Vance breaks a 50–50 tie. The line marks the middle.

Who holds it now: Republicans 53, Democratic caucus 47 (45 Democrats + 2 independents, King and Sanders, who caucus with them). What flips it: Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to reach 51. Republicans keep control at 50, because Vice President Vance breaks a 50–50 tie, so they can lose up to 3 seats net.

Tonight so far: Democrats 34, Republicans 31, 35 seats not called. Democrats need 17 more of those for 51; Republicans need 19 more for 50. No seats have changed party yet.

Media call (AP) Seats called tonight: AP via NYT results data · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

35 seats on the ballot (incl. specials in Ohio and Florida). Called by AP: 0 of 35 · projected by CNN: 0 · by Fox News: 0. Baseline, not on the ballot tonight (not called by anyone; these 65 seats are not up this year): Democratic caucus 34 (incl. independents King and Sanders) and Republicans 31. The seat counts above include them. Before tonight: R 53 · D 45 · I 2.

Cook’s final ratings, seats not up included: D-leaning 48 · R-leaning 46 · Toss-up 6. More in the baseline section below.

House control

0Democrats
435Undecided
0Republicans

Majority: 218 of 435. The line marks 218.

Who holds it now: Republicans 218, Democrats 214, 1 other, 2 vacant. What flips it: the majority is 218. Democrats need a net gain of 4 over their 214; Republicans must hold all 218 they have.

Tonight so far: Democrats 0, Republicans 0, 435 seats not called. Democrats need 218 more for 218; Republicans need 218 more. No seats have changed party yet.

Media call (AP) Seats called tonight: AP via NYT results data · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

All 435 seats are on the ballot. Called by AP: 0 · projected by CNN: 0 · by Fox News: 0. Before tonight: R 218 · D 214 · 1 other · 2 vacant (per AP data).

Cook’s final ratings: D-leaning 222 · R-leaning 195 · Toss-up 18.

What the forecasters expect Analysis

Pre-election ratings · until results come in this is the best guide

Solid RLikely RLean RToss-upLean DLikely DSolid D

Senate

Now: R 53 · D 45 · I 2 (independents caucus with D). Bars count all 100 seats; the 65 not up are counted as Solid.

▼ 51 = majority (R needs 50: VP Vance breaks a tie)
Cookratings of Nov 2
42
6
43
R 46Toss-up 6D 48
Sabatoratings of Nov 2
41
6
43
R 47no toss-upsD 53
Inside Electionsratings of Oct 29
41
6
43
R 46Toss-up 4D 50
Across the three forecasters: R favored in 46–47 · D in 48–53 · 0–6 toss-ups (of 100 seats)

Cook toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio (special), Texas. Inside Elections’ “Tilt” counted as Lean; Sabato’s “Safe” as Solid.

House

Now: R 218 · D 214, 1 other, 2 vacant. All 435 seats are up.

▼ 218 = majority
Cookratings of Nov 2
160
186
R 195Toss-up 18D 222
Sabatoratings of Nov 2
159
36
184
R 196no toss-upsD 239
Inside Electionsratings of Oct 29
163
29
190
R 198Toss-up 13D 224
Across the three forecasters: R favored in 195–198 · D in 222–239 · 0–18 toss-ups (of 435 seats)

Governors

36 governor races this year.

Cookratings of Oct 29
7
3
3
3
6
13
R 13Toss-up 3D 20
Sabatoratings of Nov 2
6
3
5
6
4
12
R 14no toss-upsD 22
Inside Electionsratings of Oct 29
7
4
3
8
3
10
R 14Toss-up 1D 21
Across the three forecasters: R favored in 13–14 · D in 20–22 · 0–3 toss-ups (of 36 races)
Show tableThe same numbers, rater by rater

Senate

Solid RLikely RLean RToss-upLean DLikely DSolid Dn/a
Cook Political Report 2026-11-02422263243
Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026-11-02412406443
Inside Elections 2026-10-29413246143

House

Solid RLikely RLean RToss-upLean DLikely DSolid Dn/a
Cook Political Report 2026-11-021601718181818186
Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026-11-02159162103619184
Inside Elections 2026-10-29163191613295190

Governors

Solid RLikely RLean RToss-upLean DLikely DSolid Dn/a
Cook Political Report 2026-10-2973336113
Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026-11-0263506412
Inside Elections 2026-10-2974318310

Rater rows are each rater's final pre-election ratings: Cook Political Report (final ratings of 2026-11-02), Sabato's Crystal Ball (final ratings of 2026-11-02), Inside Elections (final ratings of 2026-10-29). Louisiana’s House seats and the Ohio and Florida Senate specials carry no rating there (n/a).

Turnout so far Analysis

Who has voted so far, from state data as posted by analysts · shows who is voting, not how they voted4
New YorkKey races1 post
  • Lohud1:51 p.m. ETNews report · not official
    See voter turnout at Monsey NY polling site on Election Day
TexasKey races3 posts
  • X · @ElectionWiz3:22 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    🚨 TEXAS ELECTION DAY UPDATE (2:20 PM CT) Check-ins 7 AM–2 PM vs. same hours in 2024: 🟥 Montgomery 101% 🟦 Travis 95% 🟥 Bell 87% Share of 2024's full Election Day turnout so far: 🟦 Hays 57% 🟥 Ellis 53% 🟥 McLennan 52% 🟦…
  • X · @ElectionWiz2:19 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    🚨 ELECTION ALERT: Texas check-in update as of 1:10 PM CT: 🟥 Red counties like Montgomery are running at or above 2024's Election Day pace. 🟦 Blue counties like Travis, Dallas and Hays are close behind. 🟨 Turnout is ro…
  • X · @ElectionWiz1:27 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    🚨TX Election Day check-ins in vs 2024 Election Day total 🔵 Harris (Houston metro): 100K+ (~31% of 2024 ED) as of 11 AM
FloridaKey races3 of 8
  • X · @ElectionWiz3:17 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    🚨 FLORIDA ELECTION DAY UPDATE (3:05 PM ET) In-person turnout: 1.71M 🔴 GOP 50.0% 🔵 DEM 25.9% ⚪ Other 24.1% R+24.0, GOP raw lead ~411K That already tops the 2024 full Election Day lead of ~384K, with about 4 hours of vo…
  • X · @ElectionWiz2:22 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    🚨FLORIDA ELECTION DAY UPDATE 2:20 PM ET In-person turnout: 1.53M 🔴 GOP 50.3% 🔵 DEM 25.8% ⚪ Other 23.9% R+24.4, GOP raw lead ~374K 2024 same time: R+19.8, lead ~279K 2024 full Election Day lead: ~384
  • X · @Redistrict2:22 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    Update: as of 2pm, Florida has crossed 7M ballots cast (final was 11M in 2024, 7.8M in 2022). Registered Ds are at 71% of their 2024 total turnout, Rs at 63%, NPA/others at 56%. Overall turnout is R+7.1 pts (2024 fina…
OhioKey races1 post
  • X · @ElectionWiz1:34 p.m. ETAnalyst post · not official
    🚨OH ELECTION ALERT: Early precinct-level turnout data in 8 counties (incl. Franklin, Cuyahoga, Hamilton) shows a slight tilt toward Dem-leaning areas vs. 2024 when early + Election Day are combined.

Turnout posts picked from the live feed (X, Bluesky, Telegram and news), grouped by state, newest first, copied as posted and linked. These are analysts’ readings of state and county turnout data (who has voted, by party registration or check-ins), not vote counts and not official. Feed · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

My read Analysis

Senate: all six of Cook’s toss-ups are Republican-held (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas). Counting seats not up, Cook leans 48 seats to Democrats and 46 to Republicans, so Democrats need 3 of the 6 toss-ups for 51 and Republicans need 4 for 50. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which calls every race, ends at 53 D – 47 R, and Inside Elections expects Democrats to gain 4 to 6 seats. On paper, the Republican majority is at real risk.

House: Cook leans 222 seats to Democrats and 195 to Republicans, with 18 toss-ups. Even a Republican sweep of every toss-up reaches only 213, short of 218. All three raters have Democrats favored to flip the House. Inside Elections projects a gain of 20 to 30 seats.

Early signals: at 6 p.m. Kentucky’s 6th (a toss-up) and Indiana. At 7 p.m. Georgia (Ossoff, plus a toss-up governor race), New Hampshire and Virginia’s 1st. At 7:30 p.m. North Carolina (Cooper, a likely Democratic pickup) and the Ohio special (Husted vs. Sherrod Brown). If Democrats lose NC or Republicans hold Ohio early, the Senate math changes fast.

New York and Rockland: Hochul is rated safe against Blakeman (Inside Elections says Likely D). NY-17 is a toss-up for Cook and Inside Elections, and Sabato leans it to Lawler. Locally, endorsements split: a kol korei of 18 Rockland rabbonim backs Weber, Lawler and Blakeman, while mosdos leaders back Lawler but Democrat Joe Rand over Weber for state Senate (as reported by Monsey Scoop). NY polls close at 9 p.m.

Pre-election read · written from the data on this page at 2:10 p.m. ET. My interpretation, not a projection or a race call.

Exit polls vs. real results Surveys, not results

Exit polls are released as each state’s polls close (first at 6–7 PM ET); they’ll appear here with the actual count beside them.

About these numbersSources and how exit polls work

Sources: CNN’s exit poll (this year the CNN Voter Poll by SSRS) and Fox News Voter Analysis. Exit polls are surveys of voters, not votes. They carry a margin of error and get re-weighted to the real count during the night. Neither publishes one headline number, so the exit-poll figure here is the poll’s own breakdown (by gender), weighted by each group’s share of voters. The count is AP’s, as reported so far.

Forecasts & polls Forecast – not a result

Made before the votes · estimates, not results3

Decision Desk HQ model · updated Nov 2, 3:03 p.m. ET
Forecast – not a result Not yet verified

  • House: Democrats 84% chance of control (projected 241 seats)
  • Senate: Democrats 65% chance of control (projected 52 seats)

Reported by Instinct (which read the model page on Nov 3), not independently verified: the page blocked my check.

Silver Bulletin (FLIPR final model) · Nov 3
Forecast – not a result Not yet verified

  • Senate: Democrats 82.4% chance of control
  • House: Democrats 96.4% chance of control
  • Senate poll averages: TX D+3.3 · OH D+3 · MI D+4.9 · ME D+3.9 · KS D+4 · IA D+1.1; GA and NC rated barely competitive

Reported by Instinct, not independently verified: from a Nov 3 Reason article; the model page is paywalled and was not read directly.

Siena College poll of likely New York voters · released Oct 28
Forecast – not a result

  • Governor: Hochul 54% · Blakeman 40%
  • Attorney General: James 54% · Komatireddy 39%
  • Comptroller: DiNapoli 59% · Hernandez 32%

Checked against Siena’s own release. A poll is a snapshot, not a result.

Compiled with Instinct.

What’s new in the election

112 earlier updates112

Newest on top. All times Eastern. Feeds · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

Poll closing times (ET)Next: 6 p.m. · IN, KY10
  • 6 p.m.IN, KY
  • 7 p.m.FL, GA, NH, SC, VA, VT
  • 7:30 p.m.NC, OH, WV
  • 8 p.m.AL, CT, DC, DE, IL, KS, MA, MD, ME, MI, MO, MS, ND, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN, TX
  • 8:30 p.m.AR
  • 9 p.m.AZ, CO, IA, LA, MN, NE, NM, NY, SD, WI, WY
  • 10 p.m.ID, MT, NV, UT
  • 11 p.m.CA, OR, WA
  • 12 a.m.HI
  • 1 a.m.AK

Each state is listed at the hour most of its polls are closed. Some states span two time zones (for example Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, Texas, Michigan, Kansas), so part of the state closes an hour earlier.

Key Senate races

The 5 toss-ups, then the lean, likely and unrated seats. The tag is the last pre-election rating.

Alaska

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Toss-up

R Dan Sullivan (inc.)
D Mary Peltola

Last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern time.

Iowa

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Toss-up

D Josh Turek
R Ashley Hinson

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Kansas

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Toss-up

R Roger Marshall (inc.)
D Adam Hamilton

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Maine

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Toss-up

R Susan Collins (inc.)
D Troy Jackson

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Texas

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D James Talarico
R Ken Paxton

Most polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

10 more competitive Senate racesLean, likely and the two unrated specials10

Michigan

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Abdul El-Sayed
R Mike Rogers

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Minnesota

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Lean D

D Peggy Flanagan
R Michele Tafoya

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Nebraska

Lean R

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

R Pete Ricketts (inc.)
I Dan Osborn

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

New Hampshire

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Chris Pappas
R John Sununu

Most polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

South Carolina

Lean R

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

R Darline Graham (inc.)
D Annie Andrews

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Georgia

Likely D

Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Likely D

D Jon Ossoff (inc.)
R Mike Collins

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Mississippi

Likely R

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

R Cindy Hyde-Smith (inc.)
D Scott Colom

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

North Carolina

Likely D

Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Lean D

D Roy Cooper
R Michael Whatley

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.

Florida (special)

No rating

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

R Ashley Moody (inc.)
D Angie Nixon

First polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Ohio (special)

No rating

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

R Jon Husted (inc.)
D Sherrod Brown

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.

The other 20 Senate racesRated solid20
  • AlabamaD Wess vs R MoorePolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • ArkansasR Cotton* vs D ShoffnerPolls close at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • ColoradoD Hickenlooper* vs R BaisleyPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • DelawareD Coons* vs R KatzPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • IdahoR Risch* vs I AchillesFirst polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time.
  • IllinoisD Stratton vs R TracyPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • KentuckyD Booker vs R BarrFirst polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time.
  • LouisianaD Davis vs R LetlowPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MassachusettsD Markey* vs R DeatonPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MontanaR Alme vs I BodnarPolls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time.
  • New JerseyD Booker* vs R MurphyPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • New MexicoD Luján* vs R MarkerPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • OklahomaR Hern vs D ThomasPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • OregonD Merkley* vs R SmithMost polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.
  • Rhode IslandD Reed* vs R McKayPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • South DakotaR Rounds* vs I BengsLast polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • TennesseeR Hagerty* vs D BradshawPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • VirginiaD Warner* vs R MizusawaPolls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • West VirginiaR Capito* vs D AndersonPolls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • WyomingR Hageman vs D ByrdPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Most competitive House races

18 toss-ups. Called and most-counted races show first.

CA-22

Toss-up
R David Valadao (inc.)
D Randy Villegas

Polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.

CO-5

Toss-up
R Jeff Crank (inc.)
D Jessica Killin

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

FL-14

Toss-up
D Kathy Castor (inc.)
R Mike Beltran

First polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

FL-22

Toss-up
R Casey Askar
D Pia Dandiya

First polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

IA-2

Toss-up
D Lindsay James
R Joe Mitchell

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

KY-6

Toss-up
D Zach Dembo
R Ralph Alvarado

First polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time.

12 more toss-upsMI-10, MI-4, MI-7, MT-1…12

MI-10

Toss-up
D Christina Hines
R Michael Bouchard

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

MI-4

Toss-up
R Bill Huizenga (inc.)
D Sean McCann

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

MI-7

Toss-up
R Tom Barrett (inc.)
D William Lawrence

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

MT-1

Toss-up
D Sam Forstag
R Aaron Flint

Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time.

NC-1

Toss-up
D Don Davis (inc.)
R Laurie Buckhout

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.

NY-17

Toss-up
R Mike Lawler (inc.)
D Cait Conley

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

OH-7

Toss-up
R Max Miller (inc.)
D Brian Poindexter

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.

PA-1

Toss-up
R Brian Fitzpatrick (inc.)
D Bob Harvie

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

SC-1

Toss-up
D Nancy Lacore
R Jenny Costa Honeycutt

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

TX-15

Toss-up
R Monica De La Cruz (inc.)
D Bobby Pulido

Most polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

TX-35

Toss-up
D Johnny Garcia
R Carlos De La Cruz

Most polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

VA-1

Toss-up
R Rob Wittman (inc.)
D Shannon Taylor

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

36 lean seatsLean D / Lean R · * = incumbent36
  • AZ-1R Feely vs D ShahPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • AZ-6R Ciscomani* vs D MendozaPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • CA-48D von Wilpert vs R DesmondPolls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.
  • CO-8R Evans* vs D RutinelPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • FL-25D Moskowitz* vs R SingerFirst polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • IA-1R Miller-Meeks* vs D BohannanPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • IA-3R Nunn* vs D Trone GarriottPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NC-11D Ager vs R BalkcomPolls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NJ-7R Kean* vs D BennettPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NM-2D Vasquez* vs R CunninghamPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • OH-9D Kaptur* vs R MerrinPolls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • PA-10R Perry* vs D StelsonPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • PA-7R Mackenzie* vs D BrooksPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • PA-8R Bresnahan* vs D CognettiPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • TX-34D Gonzalez* vs R FloresMost polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • VA-2R Kiggans* vs D LuriaPolls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • WA-3D Gluesenkamp Perez* vs R BraunPolls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.
  • WI-3R Van Orden* vs D CookePolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • AK-1R Begich* vs O HillLast polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern time.
  • AL-2D Figures* vs R MarquesPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • AZ-2R Crane* vs D NezPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • CO-4R Boebert* vs D LaubacherPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • FL-13R Luna* vs D GrayFirst polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • FL-27R Salazar* vs D RodriguezFirst polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • FL-7D Dalton vs R ElijahFirst polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • FL-9D Soto* vs R GreenFirst polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • IN-5R Spartz* vs D FordFirst polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time.
  • ME-2D Dunlap vs R LePagePolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MN-1R Finstad* vs D JohnsonPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NV-2D Benitez-Thompson vs R FlippoPolls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-21D Gendebien vs R ConstantinoPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • OH-10R Turner* vs D KnickerbockerPolls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • OH-15R Carey* vs D LeonardPolls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • TX-23D Padilla Stout vs R HerreraMost polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • VA-5R McGuire* vs D PerrielloPolls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • WI-1R Steil* vs D BermanPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Governors

36 governor races: New York first, then the toss-ups.

New York

Solid D

Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

D Kathy Hochul (inc.)
R Bruce Blakeman

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Georgia

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Keisha Bottoms
R Rick Jackson

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Kansas

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

D Cindy Holscher
R Ty Masterson

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Nevada

Toss-up

Cook: Toss-up · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Toss-up

R Joe Lombardo (inc.)
D Aaron Ford

Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time.

13 more competitive governor racesLean and likely13

Alaska

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
R Bernadette Wilson
R Treg Taylor

Last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern time.

Florida

Lean R

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Lean R

R Byron Donalds
D David Jolly

First polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Iowa

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D

D Rob Sand
R Zach Lahn

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Michigan

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Lean D

D Jocelyn Benson
R John James

First polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Nebraska

Lean R

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

R Jim Pillen (inc.)
D Lynne Walz

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Ohio

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Amy Acton
R Vivek Ramaswamy

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.

Oregon

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Tina Kotek (inc.)
R Christine Drazan

Most polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.

Texas

Lean R

Cook: Lean R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Tilt R

R Greg Abbott (inc.)
D Gina Hinojosa

Most polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Wisconsin

Lean D

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D David Crowley
R Tom Tiffany

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Arizona

Likely D

Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

D Katie Hobbs (inc.)
R Andy Biggs

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

New Hampshire

Likely R

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Solid R

R Kelly Ayotte (inc.)
D Cinde Warmington

Most polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

Oklahoma

Likely R

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R

R Mike Mazzei
D Cyndi Munson

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Vermont

Likely R

Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Lean R · Inside Elections: Likely R

R Phil Scott (inc.)
D Amanda Janoo

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.

The other 19 governor racesRated solid19
  • AlabamaD Jones vs R TubervillePolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • ArkansasR Huckabee Sanders* vs D LovePolls close at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time.
  • CaliforniaD Becerra vs R HiltonPolls close at 11 p.m. Eastern time.
  • ColoradoD Weiser vs R MarxPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • ConnecticutD Lamont* vs R FazioPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • HawaiiD Green* vs R CorderyPolls close at midnight Eastern time.
  • IdahoR Little* vs D PickensFirst polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time.
  • IllinoisD Pritzker* vs R BaileyPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MaineD Pingree vs R CharlesPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MarylandD Moore* vs R CoxPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MassachusettsD Healey* vs R MinoguePolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • MinnesotaD Klobuchar vs R DemuthPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • New MexicoD Haaland vs R HullPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • PennsylvaniaD Shapiro* vs R GarrityPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • Rhode IslandD Foulkes vs R GuckianPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • South CarolinaD Johnson vs R WilsonPolls close at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
  • South DakotaR Rhoden* vs D AhlersLast polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • TennesseeR Blackburn vs D GreenPolls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
  • WyomingR Barlow vs D CasnerPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

New York

NY-17

Toss-up
R Mike Lawler (inc.)
D Cait Conley

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

NY-17: Rockland, Putnam and northern Westchester, plus part of Dutchess. One of the most-watched toss-ups in the country.

New York

Solid D

Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

D Kathy Hochul (inc.)
R Bruce Blakeman

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

NY-16

Solid D
D George Latimer (inc.)
R Joseph Cinquemani

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

NY-18

Solid D
D Pat Ryan (inc.)
R Jackie Auringer

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

NY-19

Likely D
D Josh Riley (inc.)
R Peter Oberacker

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

All 26 New York House seatsCalled so far: D 0 · R 026
  • NY-1R LaLota* vs D GallantPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-2R Garbarino* vs D HalpinPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-3D Suozzi* vs R LiPetriPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-4D Gillen* vs R DriscollPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-5D Meeks* vs R MarshPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-6D Meng* vs R ChouPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-7D Valdez vs R RiveraPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-8D Jeffries* vs R MizrahiPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-9D Clarke* vs R AzumahPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-10D Lander vs R MoorePolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-11R Malliotakis* vs D DeCillisPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-12D Lasher vs R ShinklePolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-13D Avila Chevalier vs R WilliamsPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-14D Ocasio-Cortez* vs R HysenajPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-15D Torres* vs R SapaskisPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-16D Latimer* vs R CinquemaniPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-17R Lawler* vs D ConleyPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-18D Ryan* vs R AuringerPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-19D Riley* vs R OberackerPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-20D Tonko* vs R AmbrosioPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-21D Gendebien vs R ConstantinoPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-22D Mannion* vs R BullerPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-23R Langworthy* vs D GiesPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-24R Tenney* vs D EllmanPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-25D Morelle* vs R McIntyrePolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.
  • NY-26D Kennedy* vs R HannonPolls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

New York polls close at 9 p.m. ET. Hudson Valley seats: NY-16 (southern Westchester), NY-17 (Rockland / northern Westchester / Putnam), NY-18 (Orange / Dutchess), NY-19 (Catskills / Southern Tier).

Ballot measures to watch Not yet verified

Voter ID, Maryland maps, CA wealth tax, Alaska ranked-choice4
  • Voter ID amendmentsConstitutional voter-ID measures in Arizona, California (Prop 39), Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. [CA Secretary of State qualified-measures page; Ballotpedia]
  • Maryland Question 3Constitutional amendment under which nothing in the Maryland constitution would set criteria for congressional maps; could enable a new map for 2028. [Maryland State Board of Elections]
  • California Prop 40One-time 5% tax on assets over $1 billion, revenue primarily for health care. [CA Secretary of State official voter guide]
  • Alaska Measure 2Repeal of the top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. [Alaska Division of Elections via Anchorage Gazette; Ballotpedia]

Sources in brackets, as reported by Instinct; not independently verified by me. Results will be added here when counted. Compiled with Instinct.

Rockland County

NY-17

Toss-up
R Mike Lawler (inc.)
D Cait Conley

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

New York

Solid D

Cook: Solid D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Likely D

D Kathy Hochul (inc.)
R Bruce Blakeman

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Everything on the Rockland ballot Official countState Senate, Assembly, supervisors, courts, props · counts after 9 p.m. ET19

Verified against the Rockland County Board of Elections candidate list and its results system. Vote counts appear here after NY polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

  • Governor / Lt. GovernorKathy C. Hochul (inc.) Democratic, Working Families
    Bruce A. Blakeman Republican, Conservative, Vote Affordable
  • State ComptrollerThomas P. DiNapoli (inc.) Democratic, Working Families
    Joseph Hernandez Republican, Conservative
  • Attorney GeneralLetitia A. James (inc.) Democratic, Working Families
    Saritha Komatireddy Republican, Conservative
  • U.S. House · NY-17Cait Conley Democratic, Working Families
    Mike Lawler (inc.) Republican, Conservative
  • NY State Senate · SD-38Joseph W. Rand Democratic, Working Families
    Bill Weber (inc.) Republican, Conservative
  • NY State Senate · SD-40Peter B. Harckham (inc.) Democratic, Working Families
    Sergio J. Esposito Republican, Conservative
  • NY State Assembly · AD-96Patrick Carroll (inc.) Democratic, Working Families
    Brett L. Yagel Republican, Conservative
  • NY State Assembly · AD-97Aron B. Wieder (inc.) Democratic
    Rob Bonomolo Republican
    Abraham Klein Conservative
  • NY State Assembly · AD-98Karl A. Brabenec (inc.) Republican, ConservativeUncontested
  • NY State Assembly · AD-99Christopher W. Eachus (inc.) Democratic, Working Families
    Richard A. Vargus Republican, Conservative
  • Supervisor ClarkstownEugene Bondar Democratic, Working Families
    George A. Hoehmann (inc.) Republican, Conservative
  • Supervisor HaverstrawHoward T. Phillips Jr. (inc.) Democratic, ConservativeUncontested
  • Supervisor OrangetownTeresa M. Kenny (inc.) Republican, ConservativeUncontested
  • Supervisor RamapoMichael B. Specht (inc.) Democratic, ConservativeUncontested
  • Supervisor Stony PointAmy Conklin (inc.) Republican, ConservativeUncontested
  • NY Supreme Court Justice (vote for 3, 14-yr term) · 9th Judicial DistrictMaria G. Rosa Democratic, Working Families
    George E. Fufidio Democratic, Republican
    Alden H. Wolfe Democratic, Conservative
    Richard S. Fava Pastilha Republican, Conservative
    John Ciampoli Republican
  • Rockland County Court Judge (10-yr term)Ivonne S. Santos Democratic, Republican, ConservativeUncontested
  • Proposition #1: County Charter changesYes
    No
  • Proposition #2: Orangetown Local Law 3-C of 2026 (0.3% real estate transfer tax for Community Preservation Fund)Yes
    No
18 more local racesTown clerks, highway superintendents, council wards, villages18
  • Clarkstown Town Council (Ward 1)Joseph C. Damiani Democratic, Working Families
    Jon P. Valentino Republican, Conservative
  • Clarkstown Town Council (Ward 2)Sylke E. Jackson Democratic, Working Families
    Mike Graziano Republican, Conservative
  • Clarkstown Town Council (Ward 3)Susan M. Bloom Democratic, Working Families
    Donald Franchino Republican, Conservative
  • Clarkstown Town Council (Ward 4)Gina DeFelice Democratic, Working Families
    Robert A. Axelrod Republican, Conservative
  • Town Clerk ClarkstownGregory Sheehan Democratic, Working Families
    Lauren M. Wohl Republican, Conservative
  • Town Clerk HaverstrawRaquel Ventura Democratic, ConservativeUncontested
  • Town Clerk OrangetownRosanna Sfraga Republican, ConservativeUncontested
  • Superintendent of Highways ClarkstownRobert E. Milone Democratic
    Robert Sambevski Republican, Conservative
  • Superintendent of Highways HaverstrawJohn Bart Gordon Democratic, ConservativeUncontested
  • Superintendent of Highways OrangetownJames J. Dean Republican, ConservativeUncontested
  • Superintendent of Highways RamapoFredric M. Brinn DemocraticUncontested
  • Haverstraw Village TrusteeAndrea Caccuro DemocraticUncontested
  • Nyack Village TrusteeDonna Lightfoot Cooper Democratic
    Pascale Jean-Gilles Democratic
  • Piermont Village TrusteeKevin J. Timoney Democratic
    Mark W. Blomquist Democratic
  • Sloatsburg Village TrusteeMarc A. Bitterman Republican, Conservative
    John M. Bonkoski Republican, Conservative
  • Suffern Village TrusteeSteven P. Alpert Democratic
    Angela M. Hogue Democratic, Conservative
    Wayne Jennings Republican, Cut Suffern Taxes
    Meghan Lynch Republican, Cut Suffern Taxes
  • Sloatsburg Village JusticeTheresa Bitterman RepublicanUncontested
  • Suffern Village JusticeErnest S. Buonocore Working Families, RepublicanUncontested

Counts: Rockland County Board of Elections election-night results (unofficial until certified). NY-17 and governor cards above use AP data for the whole district/state. Rockland BOE · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

Frum media News

18 more headlines18
Endorsements and key itemsRecent weeks12

Election headlines from Agudath Israel, Ami Magazine, Forward, Jacob Kornbluh (Forward), Jewish Insider, Jewish Press, Matzav, Mishpacha, Monsey Scoop, The Lakewood Scoop, VIN News, Yated Ne'eman, Yeshiva World News, copied as published from their feeds, newest first. The headlines are the outlets’ words, not mine. Feeds · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

What the networks are saying News

Latest election headlines from each outlet · verbatim, linked9
APlatest 4:04 p.m.
Fox Newslatest 12:49 p.m.
CNNlatest 3:41 p.m.
MSNBC (MS NOW)latest 3:49 p.m.
Daily Wirelatest 10:09 a.m.
New York Timeslatest 4:00 p.m.
NBC Newslatest 3:45 p.m.
Wall Street Journallatest 3:01 p.m.
Politicolatest 12:00 p.m.

The latest election headlines from each outlet’s own feed (AP, CNN and MS NOW through Google News search), copied as published and linked, newest first. The headlines are the outlets’ words, not mine. Feeds · checked 4:10 p.m. ET

What’s new on this siteLayout and feature changes15
  • New box “Turnout so far”, right under the forecasters: the latest turnout posts by state (Florida party-registration counts, Texas county check-ins and so on), key-race states first, copied as posted and linked. It shows who is voting, not how they voted, and it is analysts’ data, not official.
  • New box “What the networks are saying”: the latest election headlines from AP, Fox News, CNN, MS NOW, Daily Wire, The New York Times, NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Politico, one card per outlet, copied as published and linked.
  • Desktop layout: on a computer screen the page is now a wide dashboard: Senate and House side by side at the top, the forecasters in three columns, race cards in a grid and the news feeds in a right-hand column. The phone layout is unchanged.
  • “What the forecasters expect” moved up under the seat charts and made visual: one colored bar per forecaster (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) for Senate, House and governors, with the majority line and an R / D / toss-up count. The full numbers are still there under “Show table”.
  • Phone-friendly layout: long lists now fold open with a tap (▸): other races, all 26 NY seats, Rockland ballot, poll times, forecasts, ballot measures, ratings tables, older headlines. Seat charts, NY-17, NY governor and My read stay open.
  • Label fixes: held-over Senate seats now marked as a baseline (not called tonight); "Democratic caucus 47"; ballot measures marked not yet verified.
  • Added control math to the Senate and House boxes (who holds what, what each party needs) with source and check time.
  • Added a “Ballot measures to watch” section (with Instinct).
  • Added labels on every item: Official count / Media call / News / Analysis / Not yet verified / Forecast – not a result.
  • Added a “Forecasts & polls” section (Decision Desk HQ, Silver Bulletin, Siena), compiled with Instinct.
  • Added an exit polls vs. real results box.
  • Added seat charts for the Senate and House: gray seats fill in blue or red as races are called.
  • Split “What’s new” in two: election news, and this list of changes to the site itself.
  • Live version published.
  • First draft: Senate, House, governors, New York, Rockland ballot, frum media, Fox/Daily Wire, ratings baseline.

Changes to the page itself, newest on top. Election news is in “What’s new in the election” above.

Sources & methodWhere every number comes from

Votes, % of expected vote, AP race calls and ratings: The Associated Press, as published in The New York Times’ live results data (latest AP data timestamp: 2026-11-03T15:58:17.796Z UTC). “% of expected vote in” is AP’s estimate of how much of the total vote has been counted.

Other calls: CNN Decision Desk projections (CNN’s results data) and Fox News Decision Desk projections (Fox’s results data). Where they differ from AP, each is shown.

Pre-election ratings are the ones carried in the NYT/AP results data. Nothing here is estimated by me: a race with no votes shows its poll-closing time or “waiting”, never a guess. “My read” is labeled analysis.

Refreshed about every 15 minutes through election night. Last data pull: 4:10 p.m. ET.